“The enemy of your enemy is your friend.”
The mid-term elections for Congress, 12 Senate seats, Governor and Mayor positions are 1 1/2 years away and already things are heating up. The results will set the table for the 2028 Presidential race.
The goal of the Marcos-Romualdez team is to secure at least a majority in the Senate and a super majority in Congress plus as many local Government positions as possible since they will form the core of the ground operations for 2028.
The following Senators are up for re-election: Imee Marcos, Sonny Angara, Nancy Binay, Pia Cayetano, Bato de la Rosa, Bong Go, Lito Lapid, Kiko Pimentel, Grace Poe, Francis Tolentino, Bong Revilla and Cynthia Villar. There are a number of possible contenders for the vacancies with national name recognition; PPRD, Erwin Tulfo, Tito Sotto, Kiko Pangilinan, Manny Pacquiao, Leni Robredo, GMA and possibly Vico Sotto and Willie Revillame; so some of the minor re-electionists could be out. The Administration could be hard pressed to form a Senate majority particularly if BBM’s popularity continues to decline. The state of the economy will also be a big factor.
Based on the Senate votes on the Maharlika Bill (19-2 in favor) the Administration currently has a majority of sorts in the Senate but that could change if PPRD, Imee, GMA, Pangilinan and Robredo join forces with Risa Hontiveros, Robin Padilla, Chiz Escudero and a couple of hold-overs with previous ties to PPRD; in an “Opposition”. The combination of the “pinks” and the Dutertes would make for strange bedfellows but in politics the enemy of your enemy is your friend. It could be a case of “anybody but Team MR”. GMA, the eternal pragmatist and Sara supporter, has already reached out to Leni. Everybody has forgotten the “pinks” are still a 15 million solid bloc which could spell the difference in a close race. For their part if they are to be relevant the “pinks” must understand politics is not binary but shades of grey.
The prospect of a rainbow coalition spread across the political spectrum will take some doing but Team MR is not taking any chances. Goal #1 is to destroy PPRD since he would arguably be the face of this so called Opposition. There is wild speculation Leila de Lima (who was jailed by PPRD) will be asked to join Trillanes in attacking Digong in exchange for being allowed to post bail.
PPRD is still more popular than BBM and continues to campaign through his weekly TV show on SMNI, the TV channel owned by Pastor Quiboloy of the Kingdom of Jesus Christ. According to the FBI website the latter is presently wanted by the U.S. for “conspiracy to engage in sex trafficking including children and fraud” but has avoided deportation through the graces of PPRD and our legal system. Our Dept. of Justice has said it will abide by a U.S. request for extradition. The deportation of Quiboloy and the closure of his TV station would leave PPRD without a media platform.
The Administration could also allow the ICC to move against PPRD. The Philippines left the ICC in 2019 but is still bound by any “crimes against humanity” registered before its exit. To date the ICC has filed 31 cases against former leaders mainly from Africa with 21 being detained and the rest at large or deceased. There have been 10 convictions and 4 acquittals. The ICC has no police power in the Philippines and would require the cooperation of the Government.
Goal #2 is to demolish VP Sara. There is talk (which BBM and Speaker Martin now disavow as would be expected) of an impeachment against her over the Php 125 million Confidential Funds that were transferred to her office from the President’s funds in 2022. This move legally and politically has no legs and Team MR could see a massive public blowback if it should choose to proceed. It would be perceived as 300 Congressmen and women ganging up against a hapless woman who made BBM President. Why is Sara being singled out over her CIF when the President, the Speaker, the Senate President and others are not? The impeachment may pass the House where votes can reportedly be “bought” but that could be very expensive since the Dutertes are still a political force and many Congressmen would like their endorsement in 2025. The impeachment will almost certainly be defeated in the Senate. Perhaps Team MR believes it can buy a favorable outcome which would constitutionally put the Speaker one breath away from the Presidency.
It puzzles me why Team MR with all its power and money should be pre-occupied with a woman who has not shown herself to be a threat and who on her current pace could even self-destruct or fade into oblivion.
The prospect of a battle between Team MR and Duterte & Co. would be more damaging to the former than to the latter since it would have the most to lose. It would be viewed by voters as political bullying, Goliath against David, a rookie Team MR versus a wily politician who revels in personal and gutter politics. It would provide PPRD with a pulpit to attack the Administration. It could be the tipping point in the life of this Administration analogous in many ways to the assassination of Ninoy Aquino which ushered the fall of the first Marcos Presidency. It would make the Dutertes, father and daughter, martyrs. In the U.S. Donald Trump’s popularity has risen with every legal case filed against him. In politics victory is not in the court of law but in that of public opinion.
The natives are restless. The poverty is everywhere with 48% of Filipinos describing themselves as poor. The military is seeing some rumblings. AFP Chief Brawner and PNP head Acorda recently reported (and then recanted) destabilization among retired officers. This could be an attempt to increase their budgets and their powers – Ferdinand Marcos used the Communist threat as a cover for martial law – but it could also be their way of warning their political bosses that corruption in Government amidst unpaid pensions and millions of starving Filipinos is no longer tenable.
A full blown political war would be bad for the economy which despite the official numbers is still very weak. Q3 GDP showed a rebound but most of it was due to a sudden spurt in Government spending that is unsustainable given our fiscal situation. The drivers of economic growth should be consumer demand, exports and private sector investment but these are flat from inflation, high interest rates, costs of doing business, political uncertainty and failure of Government to pay its bills. A weak economy would be the backdrop the Opposition needs to make gains just as it did in EDSA 1.
The prospect of armed conflict between supporters of the two feuding camps, military or otherwise, is presently slim but matters could escalate. Team MR awoke a sleeping tiger in PPRD then proceeded to wound him and his daughter. PPRD is unpredictable and most dangerous when he and his family are facing an existential threat. He could go all in. Sara garnered more votes than BBM in 2022 and Digong remains very popular especially with the Southern military command so Team MR could be in a fight it cannot win.
Team MR has another option which is to convert to a Parliamentary system where the country’s leader is chosen by the majority of Parliament rather than by the people. Speaker Martin is well positioned for such a post. As it is he already acts like a Chief Executive making policy pronouncements and leading raids on rice warehouses and such. Charter change is complicated and lengthy: The first step is to control Congress and the Senate in 2025, hence the importance of that outcome.
Why has Team MR started an unprovoked fight with the Dutertes that is unpopular, unproductive, ungrateful and worse, unnecessary? It could be the arrogance of power, the blind ambition, the omnipotence, hallucinations, Don Quixote fighting windmills, impatience or the paranoia of threats real or imaginary. Whatever, these and not the Dutertes are what could spell the death of its plans.
Heneral Lunacy 