The Stage Is set

“We cannot afford a Government of thieves unless we can tolerate a nation of highwaymen.” – Joaquin Roces

In the last forthnight the following has happened:

• The House denied the Office of the Vice-President and the DepEd Php 650 million in confidential funds. The same House approved a Php 13 billion confidential budget for the President.
• Past President Rodrigo Duterte called the House “the most corrupt Government organization”. He said the confidential funds of the Speaker and Congressmen should be audited.
• Sen. Imee Marcos came out publicly supporting Duterte.
• Speaker Martin Romualdez stripped ex-President GMA of her title of Deputy House Speaker after previously demoting her as Senior Deputy House Speaker. To add insult to injury, GMA was replaced by Rep. Albano, a close ally of GMA.
• GMA released a press statement reiterating her “support for Speaker Romualdez.” She took the high ground describing it all as ‘petty politics’.
• AFP Chief of Staff Brawner spoke of destabilization by certain retired military officers. I had heard of this a month ago and Gen. Brawner just gave credence to that report. He subsequently said he was mis-quoted. As a former AFP spokesperson Brawner is not one to be mis-quoted.
• PNP head Gen. Benjamin Acorda Jr. said in another address: “I hope the PNP will not be tested in the coming days or months …..” by which he presumably meant a ‘loyalty” test. 
• The popularity of PBMM and Sara significantly dropped in two quarterly surveys. The descent is notable in both its magnitude and speed.
• The economy grew by 5.9% in Q3 after 3 consecutive quarters of slowdown. The main driver was a sudden spike in government spending with private investment and consumer spending flat in real terms from high interest rates, inflation and an uncertain economic and political climate. This bodes badly for the future as further stimulus from a cash-strapped Government is unsustainable. 
• The Palace approved the implementing rules of the Maharlika Fund. The rules give the President full discretion in the appointment of its Board. The first Php 105 billion of the Fund capital was rushed impairing the capital of DBP and the Landbank.
• The silence from the Palace on all of the above was deafening. 
• In August 2023 a number of BBM supporters including Sandro resigned from the Speaker’s Lakas-NUCD party in favor of BBM’s Partido Federal. The idea is to build the latter as the majority party.

The above mosaic sets the stage for the 2025 mid-term election. At stake are local Government positions and 12 Senatorial seats. The election outcome could determine how the 2028 Presidential race pans out. PPRD will likely run for the Senate as will Sen. Imee, Pacquiao, Tito Sotto, Erwin Tulfo and Panfilo Lacson and possibly Leni leaving few seats for the Administration candidates. This will make things just a little harder for Team Marcos-Romualdez. This explains the speed in getting the Maharlika Fund up and running hoping its money chest could make the difference.

These are the principal actors in the new landscape by order of billing;

1. PBMM – As President BMM is the main man but arguably only on paper. BBM is intelligent, seemingly a nice guy who just wants to spread the love. Sen. Imee describes him as ‘chill’ which properly describes his government, a low energy, lethargic enterprise where papers move slowly. BBM seems most comfortable speaking from a script, cooking at home for his family, gathering with close friends and watching F1. He is responsive to private sector advise as long as this does not conflict with his extended family’s agenda. BBM is uninterested in the granularity of governance preferring to lead by messaging.
2. Lisa Araneta Marcos – LAM as she is fondly known is visibly so happy to be the First Lady. As I predicted she is doing all the heavy lifting for her husband. She strikes me as intelligent, ambitious, dogged, charming (when needed), hard working and organized. After her ouster of then Exec. Sec. Vic Rodriguez, she was able to place her family, friends and law partners (and their spouses) in key positions. She is transactional with little seeming interest in a vision or policy. 
3. Speaker Romualdez – Prior to the elections I wrote that Martin would be the third most powerful person in a BBM Administration. He is uncomplicated and binary, you are either for him or against him. He knows what he wants, likes to get what he wants and openly displays what he has. He understands power and how to manage it. He is ambitious if somewhat heavy handed but can be “simpatico”. He has learnt well from his father. He is not one for niceties as shown by his unceremonious take down of GMA. He is efficient as when he got the Maharlika Bill passed in 7 days, just one more day than it took God to create the world. He is seemingly preparing for a 2028 Presidential run performing many executive duties like inspecting rice warehouses in the absence of his cousin; but still has a long way to go in the polls. He has taken his gloves off on Sara & Co. but his timing may be pre-mature: It is costing him public support as well as awakening the sleeping tiger in her Dad. Martin could just have waited for Sara to self destruct in the DepEd.
4. PPRD – Digong has re-entered the political arena to save his daughter from being annihilated. The word is he will run for the Senate where he can formally organize the Opposition together with GMA and Sen. Imee. In a sense he is responsible for the situation his family is in: His rift with Sara and his insistence on imposing Bong Go on her caused Sara to step away from the Presidency. His opponents may play the ICC card on him but this could backfire in Sara’s favor. Even his untimely death could create the emotional groundswell for Sara as Cory’s did for Noynoy.
5. GMA & Imee – It is ironic that these two women who arguably are responsible for the BBM presidency should now be outside looking in. They have no real political base and would have to hitch their wagon to the Dutertes. GMA, the Eveready politician, is the tireless campaigner while Imee could split the solid north vote. 
6. Sara – The VP will have to rely on her father and her sisterhood to succeed. Her popularity has declined as with BBM’s and she must resign as Dep. Ed Secretary if she is not to go down with him. She has not so far shown the leadership, the confidence nor the skills to be President and needs to re-invent herself, develop an edge, speak beyond sound bites; and put together an organization if she is to be a factor in 2028.
7. The military – The military, especially the retired officers, are disenchanted with the failure to pay their pensions and the growing speed and scale of the corruption in Government. However, a coup will not succeed if unaccompanied by a popular uprising, the Americans will not allow it. The U.S. needs a BBM presidency in its fight against China. BBM himself has a back channel to the generals through his close friend, Inigo Zobel. Inigo has through the years personally financed the military command.

The stage is set for a face-off between the UniTeam members. The first battleground is the 2025 elections but that is just the entree to 2028.  Should the Marcos-Romualdez team fail to internally come up with a viable candidate in the presidential elections, it could enlist a stand-in like Raffy Tulfo who was second only to Robin Padilla in the last Senate elections (Robin is unavailable being close to the Dutertes.). 2028 will be a contest between the money and organizational skills of Team MR versus the Duterte brand with the economy as a backdrop and the Americans and the Chinese as observers and financiers. Whatever the final outcome we can expect Team MR to continue its fundraising by whatever means so that at least they do not end up empty handed.

It is said the extended Marcos family are not all on the same page. There is Sen. Imee but other family members are also not fans of the Speaker. The exodus of Congressmen, Governors and Mayors from Lakas to Partido Federal may be Plan B in case things do not work out with Martin.

As Lord Palmerston said, in politics there are no permanent allies only permanent interests.