2024: The Year That Could Determine A Presidency

There is a story going around, true or false, that when DA Sec. Laurel reported to the President the corruption in agriculture, BBM asked for the list of the smugglers so he could handle the matter. That was the last Laurel heard of it. In his last SONA the President vowed “the days of smugglers are numbered”. That, too, was the last anybody heard of it.

This disconnect between words and action, this dichotomy between governance and corruption in this Administration I believe will be the dominant theme in 2024. The dynamic between good government and bad government has been brewing since the start of the BBM Presidency but is quickly coming to a head. It is reflected in the dramatic and precipitous decline in the President’s trust rating and in the softness in the economy.

To stop the bleeding the President recently appointed Deck Go and Tiu Laurel as the Economic Czar and DA Secretary respectively hoping the reorganization and new personnel will reset his Government or at least convey the impression of doing so.

Administration critics say this is simply a repeat of the Ferdinand Marcos playbook where respected officials – Cesar Virata, Ting Paterno and others – were brought in to sanitize the crony capitalism that pervaded his Government. The technocrats lost that war leading to the collapse of the economy, a sovereign default and the death of the Marcos Administration. Are we headed for the same outcome in this second Marcos Presidency?

The challenges facing the new Cabinet leadership are daunting. Secretaries Go and Laurel have proven their talent in running their businesses but this time it is different: In the case of Sec. Go he now coaches a team none of whose players he selected, none of whom he can fire and none of whom is really accountable to him. The current economic team has underperformed by most accounts but he has no authority to replace them. As with all Cabinet officials they remain, as they say, at the pleasure of the President or whoever else in the Palace or the House. Many of the agency heads whose task it is to implement policy have been appointed not necessarily for their competence but for their obsequiousness and loyalty to political Gods with their own agenda. Unlike in his previous career where he was both owner and operator of his business Go has the responsibility but not the authority to perform his job.

Secretaries Go and Laurel are rookies in the political arena. Sec. Go has the bigger mandate and is therefore the bigger political target for those he has displaced or could displace. His appointment as the new sheriff in town has publicly shamed some big egos in the current economic team and threatens some criminal enterprises backed by political Gods; who now wait or even work for him to fail – and there will be failures – and pounce on him when he does. If they can throw VP Sara under the bus they can do likewise to a neophyte Secretary. 

Sec. Go must be fully aware of the pitfalls ahead but he accepted the challenge presumably out of friendship to the President, out of patriotism and belief that he can make a difference and/or with the assurance from BBM that he will have his full support. Ex-Executive Secretary Vic Rodriguez received the same memo and look where he is. In a crunch between Deck’s view and that of others close to the President blood will always be thicker than water.

For the new economic czar to succeed he must seek support elsewhere and that I believe is in public opinion and the bureaucracy. The business community is also an important constituency but it is also the first to run for cover when things go awry. Businessmen are politically fair weather friends.

Sec. Deck must be both technocrat and politician. He must reach out to the public by immersing himself in the communities and walking the factory floors. He must talk the people’s talk, bring Big Government closer to the ground. He must offer the common folk not meaningless macro-economic numbers but education for their children, healthcare for their parents, social justice and jobs. He must adopt a holistic approach to development. He must work with local Governments and NGOs through bite-sized, quick acting initiatives to complement massive but slow moving PPPs.

One of Sec. Deck’s biggest challenge is to come to terms with the bureaucracy. Government has through the years grown into a monolith without improving its service, witness the fiasco in the delivery of drivers’ licenses and national IDs. The bloat in the bureaucracy is one of the largest contributors to our fiscal deficits and record debt. Government has to be drastically cut but this is politically sensitive in a time of elections. Communication is key. Like PAL experienced when it filed for Chapter 11 protection employees can understand the need for austerity and will accept a down sizing if treated with honesty, empathy and respect, given a fair termination and assured they will be rehired as things get better (as they have). Government should offer voluntary separation while imposing a freeze on non-essential new hires until an organizational assessment can be made.

To be fair, the bureaucracy has often failed not through its fault. We have many qualified and dutiful civil servants but they have not been given the training, the technology, the political support nor the management information system to do their job. These should be the focus of Sec. Go. He should reach out to the Undersecretaries and Assistant Secretaries who do the heavy lifting.

Whether as regulators, BIR examiners or policemen Government is seen by the Filipino as the enemy. If Deck can reverse this negative image of Government and restore pride in Civil Service; the bureaucracy will rally behind him and be one of his biggest supporters in the fight against politicians and syndicates. Singapore thrives because of the strength and professionalism of its civil service.

We should be rooting for Sec. Go and his kind – Laurel, Jimmy Bautista (Transport) and Popoy Lotilla (Energy) – because it is good for the nation, because it will encourage like minded executives to join this Government and because the consequences of their failure could be tragic. I speak of social unrest or worse. These courageous men are our Imperial Guard, our last warriors against the forces of evil. If they fail there is no Plan C.

This year could be pivotal to the BBM Presidency. On one hand he seems to genuinely want to implement reforms and leave a proud legacy. At some level there is a decency about him and even a love of country as confirmed by those he has engaged with. But there is no denying the speed and scale of the corruption in his Government. BBM is aware of the issue but has stepped back either from complacency or a reluctance or inability to rein in the darkness around him. His sister, Imee, has described him as “chill”, happy at one point to have been Vice-President with all the perks of this office without the stress and responsibilities of leadership.

One can sense the opposing forces pulling at the President. How BBM chooses between them will determine the fate of this country as it could the fate of his Presidency.