Is There Life After The Elections?

“Democracy does not come naturally. You often have to work at it.”

Poltiical campaigns fall into one or a combination of the following: There is the politics of ideology (left vs right), the politics of morality (good vs evil), of personality, of policies, of fear or hatred, of power (goons, guns and gold), and the politics of branding.

The choice of political drivers often depends on circumstances: For example in Latin America and its history of revolutionary Governments from Che Guevarra on the left to Pinochet of Chile on the right politicians often campaign on class warfare. Following the atrocities of Martial Law Cory successfully introduced the politics of morality. With Duterte we witnessed the politics of cult and personality after the bland leadership of his predecessors.

Leni is running on the politics of morality interspersed with that of fear. This has gained her some traction but seemingly not enough to win. Morality has lost its shine as an issue – voters believe all politicians are corrupt – while the fear she raises of yet another Marcos has not resonated as she had hoped. Duterte also was successful in diminishing her persona and depriving her of the resources to prove her competence as VP. It did not help that Leni limited  her strategic options: When the Partido Reporma recently endorsed her, it was an excellent opportunity to invite the party’s VP candidate,Tito Sotto, to become her running mate, vice Kiko Pangilinan. Kiko brings nothing to her table other than trust and friendship. Tito Sotto, on the other hand, is immensely popular and until Sara was the outright favorite to win the position. A Leni-Sotto ticket may still not have done it for either but It would have re-energized the base, expanded her demographics and could have been the third gear Leni’s campaign needed. The combination was quickly nixed by Leni’s people suggesting territoriality and control was more important than actually winning.

Isko’s campaign is a mixture of personality politics, social media messaging and local accomplishments none of which individually or collectively add up to a national campaign. As I suggested, he would have been better served with another two terms as Manila Mayor; but he was a man in a hurry.

Pacquiao’s campaign is a combination of personality and moral politics. His failure to score was compounded by a naïveté of what it takes to organize a presidential run. “Just show up and they will come” does not quite always work that way. 

The BBM campaign is a difficult one to classify: It has no ideology, no intellectual heft, no morality play, no overwhelming personality (in fact how little is known of his persona and that of Sara is quite amazing), no scarecrows of fear and no muscling. And yet there he out-running the competition by double digit margins. BBM is running on the politics of a revisionist Marcos brand coupled with organization, funding, a divided opposition, good fortune (with Sara) and the appropriate amount of radio silence. In voters’ mind Marcos provides stability which after years of a disjointed Duterte Government must be attractive. Remember Martial Law was a popular notion to many until it exposed its true intentions.

There is the myth that democracy always delivers the best product so it is frustrating when it does not. As Winston Churchill said: “Democracy is not perfect but it is the best we have.” Democracy is particularly imperfect when voters vote with their stomachs for there can be no true political freedom without economic freedom.

BBM is ahead in the polls. Despite the doomsayers, the Philippines will not end with a BBM presidency. If there is anything the family learnt it is that one does not kill the goose that lays the Golden Egg. They are also mindful the world is watching. Social media has made our leaders more transparent if not necessarily more accountable. Sure a Marcos Administration is unlikely to be compassionate because that is not who the family is, it will be a presidency that could well revert to the Marcos mean once it gains in confidence, it will be a Government set to perpetrate itself. But will it be a Government that will bring down the nation, probably not unless the cockiness sets in.

Where does that put the opposition?

Despite the odds Leni must keep fighting to the finish line because that is what good losers do, go down punching. How she loses – if she does -, how she learns from it and how she recovers will also define her legacy.

In the longer term there is work to be done. The biggest mistake of the Liberals starting with Cory is they never took advantage of their historical and emotional momentum to found a future. They were indolent or just entitled, they never chose to build a real party from the ground up with all that it takes, voter education, registering volunteers, community organizing, undertaking livelihood and health initiatives. It left that all for Government to do not recognizing that building a base of its own is what will carry the long term fortunes of the party. 

Philippine politics have historically stood on an inverted triangle where the leadership determines the party, not on a standard triangle where the base forms the leadership. The result is a cacophony of political parties and presidential elections which are determined by personalities, not values nor programs. If we are to finally break the back of Philippine politics, we need to start on the difficult but ultimately rewarding task of building a political culture and value system from bottom up.

Of all the candidates Leni has the gravitas to undertake such an initiative but she has to hit the ground running while her supporters are still energized. Let us call this new initiative Isang Pilipino.

Isang Pilipino will not be a political a party but a movement whose mission is, one, provide services absent in Government particularly to the marginalized; two, to develop a young cadre of leaders in local Government and get them elected; and three to keep the flame of hope alive. It should be built around the NGOs, the youth and well meaning people. It must be sustainable so it must be founded not on political slogans but on gut issues like livelihood, education, health and housing. The movement should be an alternative to Government. It will organize volunteer medical residents and young graduates who will reach out to rural communities and caring local officials. It will mean food kitchens and micro finance. It will work through decentralized cells rather than hierarchies. It should start small but dream big. It will require funding some institutional but a lot crowd sourced. It must be visible. Its first goal is to build centers of community excellence which can be rapidly replicated in other geographies.

Isang Pilipino will build itself into a brand of proud, card carrying members.  Every recipient of the movement’s services must know from whence it came. It will have one logo and one vision. It should be a safe haven for Filipinos in need.

Leni and Manny Pacquiao should jointly head such a movement. Together they will provide the credibility essential to the funding and the purpose.

Although not its original mandate, Isang Pilipino will naturally take political form because all governance is eventually political. INC and El Shaddai started as religious organizations but today win elections. The Church will officially sponsor the movement providing the spiritual cove may be needed to be sustainable. The first political test of Isang Piilipino will be the local elections in 2025, whether  it can translate its economic and social DNA into a political force.

The Philippines needs to break out of cycle of top down politics and revolving politicians. That needs a think outside the box, a recasting of our political paradigm, a movement grounded on economic and social services but with political intentions. 

The question is whether we have it in each of us to raise our politics from the Phoenix.