In Oct. 2023 or nine months ago I wrote the following in a piece entitled “Bye Bye Unity Team” :
“With 4 1/2 years to go the race for the Philippine Presidency has begun.
The exact start was in May this year when Speaker Martin Romualdez unceremoniously stripped ex-President GMA of her post as Senior Deputy Speaker. Martin suspected GMA was planning to oust him – which she strongly denied – so he decided to beat her to the gun. GMA is President Emeritus of Lakas-CMD while Romualdez is its President. Both were supposedly friends and allies, she mentoring him, but as the saying goes in politics there are no permanent friends, only permanent interests.
Following the event, VP Sara posted on May 21: “Sa imong ambisyon do not be tambaloslos (In your ambition do not be shameless)”. “Tambaloslos” is also a Visayan pejorative term, a disfigured creature believed to have the power to confuse others. Sara resigned as Chair of Lakas-CMD.
The sniping between Sara and Martin has been largely under the public eye but is now surfacing. It is said the Speaker’s office has been quietly feeding the Opposition and the media with “dirty” propaganda on Sara’s deficiencies in the DepEd, her controversial intelligence funds as mayor and VP and the number of her security personnel (480 vs 78 during Leni Robredo’s term). In a clear slap in her face the Romualdez-led Congress scrapped the intelligence funds of the OVP and the DepEd, money Sara might have used for an election war chest.
Sara has allied with GMA and Sen. Imee to form what could be the Opposition but this is complicated by her public support for BBM with whom she has a cordial relationship. BBM has not forgotten he is where he is because of her. What Sara forgets is PBBM is not the head of Team Marcos and certainly not of Team Marcos/Romualdez and that any affection of BBM for her is not shared by his extended family.
The Palace has cleverly played good cop/bad cop with Sara. BBM is the good cop keeping her onside while the rest of his team play bad cop quietly undermining her persona.
Sara has a history of being at times indecisive and politically naive. She could have been President but chose instead to play second fiddle. She is today faced with the same dilemma, to openly make herself available for the presidency or again sit on the fence. If she decides on the former she has to work on a number of things:
One, she needs to open up, tell us who she is and how she will lead the nation. Sound bites are not a vision nor a policy. The business sector will want to know her plans to create jobs and grow the economy. Sara remains a very private person but she can no longer hide behind the mystery and fascination that surrounded her when she was Davao Mayor. If Sara, like the emperor, is afraid of being exposed for having no clothes then she should put some on.
Two, she needs to expand her view of the world. She is perceived as a one-dimensional provincial mayor with a militaristic bent. This explains her vast security entourage and intelligence funds which she has been unable to justify. As a city mayor her principal concern was peace and order. She was not responsible for creating jobs or as now educating the youth. As President she will be.
Three, Sara needs to deliver results something she has failed to do in the DepEd. Last year 5 million kids dropped out of school and 38% out of college. Her first priority on assuming office was to reinstate ROTC which again reflects her militaristic obsession. The DepEd position was a mistake: She does not have the qualifications for it other than being a mother. Five million kids out of school is ten million disgruntled parents and swing voters. The Palace was brilliant in offering her the DepEd position knowing she will fail.
Sara should resign as DepEd Secretary. It is a political graveyard. She cannot effectively fiscalize if she is a member of the Cabinet. Unshackled from the DepEd Sara can focus on socio economic programs using her various regional OVP outlets and getting her local candidates elected to office in 2025. They will be the ground troops for a 2028 presidential run.
Four, she needs to surround herself with advisers who know how to run the country.
Five and most important of all, Sara must want to be President. This notion of a reluctant candidate is starting to wear thin. If she does not want to lead she should step aside for others to do so. Sara has made some rookie mistakes: The first was when she declined a sure win in 2022; the second was when she believed Team BBM will hand her the gavel in 2028. Her third mistake will be assuming voters will hand her the Presidency on a silver platter. She must earn that trust.
Sara’s Dad has now openly joined the fray. He is not about to watch his daughter get politically pummeled by Team Marcos/Romualdez. He is possibly more popular than BBM whose ratings have dropped significantly in the last three months. PPRD remains very close to the military and police whose salaries and pensions he doubled. The support of our armed personnel is essential for the presidency.
Without her father Sara may not have the gravitas to go it alone even with the support of GMA (herself a septuagenarian) and Sen. Imee. GMA is the ever tireless work horse. Imee feels left out of her share of the Marcos political brand so she is carving out one for herself and her boys. How the three ladies will coalesce is still unclear.
Ex-President Duterte, 78, has often been unhealthy and may not have many more years left. If God forbid he should pass, just like the death of Cory ushered in the Noynoy presidency, this could unleash a wave of public support for Sara.
There is still the matter of PPRD’s travails with the International Court of The Hague. I believe Bongbong will not hand PPRD over to the ICC as this would be highly unpopular and only lift Sara’s profile.
The heightened political competition is good for Filipinos. This Administration has had the run of things for the last 16 months and aggressively wanting more. We have become a political monopoly. If Sara & Co. can fashion themselves as responsible fiscalizers this will rein in some of the current abuses.
Any political turmoil will be bad for the economy especially if the objective of the Opposition is regime change. Ousting BBM and his cousin is a very difficult task because the U.S. is firmly committed to this Administration as part of America’s wall against China. Our military is beholden to the U.S. for its arms, money and training and will not abandon this Administration short of massive misdeeds by its leaders and huge public discontent. This Government is not there yet but with our economic problems and brazen corruption it could be closer to the brink than it thinks. All fallen leaders think they are invincible until they are not.
Sara has a strong political base. She garnered more votes than BBM in 2022 but her numbers are falling with his. She needs to cast a wider political net. She must court the business sector with credibility and a team that can deliver. Sara could use the solid 15 million pink vote but they distrust her. Earning their confidence is a hard sell but it could happen if she was the only alternative to a Marcos/Romualdez dynasty.
China will provide all the money Sara needs.
The next battleground is the midterm 2025 elections. Sara’s and her Dad’s endorsement for the 12 Senate seats and the many Congressional and local Government positions is still highly sought by candidates. The Dutertes could leverage this for a Sara presidential run in 2028.
Sara’s options are narrowing. If she still aspires to be President keeping quiet will only embolden her opponents to destroy her and they will even if she does not run. Look what happened to GMA in May. The powers at be are not taking any chances, there is too much at stake. Sara will be portrayed as inept and corrupt, a Papa’s Girl with no identity and vision of her own. She must turn defense into offense but time is running out unless, of course, an act of God delivers Malacanang to her doorstep.”
With yesterday’s resignation of VP Sara from the BBM Administration it is now game on.
Heneral Lunacy 